The Elephant in the Forest: Population Increase and its Effect on Deforestation

Abstract

The principal cause of global warming is the burning of fossil fuels, which adds about 9.3 billion tonnes of carbon (34.2x10⁹ tCO₂) to the atmosphere each year. However, deforestation adds about another 1.4 billion tonnes of carbon (5.1x10⁹ tCO₂) each year. The principal driver of deforestation is the increase in population, mainly in poor tropical countries, and to a lesser extent the expansion of commercial agriculture. If nothing is done to increase agricultural (and forestry) productivity and temper population increase, then deforestation will increase and so will GHGs. Various proposals are made to increase agricultural and silvicultural productivity, capture GHG through tree planting etc. and tempering population growth. Such steps could reverse deforestation. Trees and their products could play a positive role in meeting the Paris Accord Target to control GHG emissions, improve rural income and lead to truly sustainable development.